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Friday, July 28, 2006

That's How I Roll: Fantasy Football Handbook 

By Chris Vining of SportsCritics.com

July 25, 2006 I feel it is my duty to share with you my fantasy football knowledge in an attempt to improve your chance at winning your league. I am a fantasy expert (in over forty football leagues I have more trophies than the Bengals have players with criminal records) in football and baseball. I have been in over three hundred different fantasy leagues in various sports and have well honed strategies on how to win. I won't tell you who to pick (why should I do all the work and take away your fun), but I will tell you what to look for to be a champion.

For those of you in my baseball league (currently 8th out of 10) my draft was a perfect learning example. I pre-ranked not based on the players I wanted, but based on the sleepers and late round picks I wanted. I had no intention of not being at my own draft, but due to a time zone mistake, I ended up missing the draft. The result was starting in the 5th round I ended up with 20 players that are lucky to still be in the major leagues. As a result I started the season with 5 catchers, 4 shortstops, closers that don't have ERAs higher than Bud Selig's IQ, and not enough players for my outfield. I am taking a mulligan on this league, but learn from my mistake. Always pre-rank as if you will not be at the draft, even if you have to write down the players you want to grab later on so you don't forget.

So here are the things you need to watch for and research when selecting your fantasy football team. The work doesn't end when your draft is over; this carries you through the entire season.

Disclaimer: I am not responsible if your team stinks. You are picking the players; I am just giving you the tools to win. I am not responsible for injuries or ineffectiveness unless I run onto the field and hit your best player in the ribs with a metal pipe.

League Type (Head to Head or Points)
In a points league you don't have to keep up with your team as much as in a head to head league. The advantage with a points league is that a few bad weeks and a few good weeks balance out. In a head to head league a few bad weeks means that you won't be a champion.

League Settings
This is the most important thing in fantasy football. How many players does your team have starting? Total? What gives you points? Are you allowed a maximum number of transactions? What determines waiver order? When do the playoffs start? Every league is different, and knowing the way your league is setup is crucial.

Pre-ranking Players
I covered this above, but never be satisfied with the pre-ranking any online league uses. Players get top ranking if they are established players, even if they are hurt or they have been relegated to backup status. Nobody wants Brett Favre as your top 3rd QB choice behind Manning and Brady just because he was successful up until 3 years ago. The most important thing is to take out the players you don't want (either due to injury or a serious change in playing time) if your league allows you to do this.

Bye Weeks
This is the second most important thing in fantasy football. Every person wants to draft the best players, but if you have several players with the same bye week then your team will take a huge hit in points. I saw a team that had Payton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Brandon Stokley, and Edge James two years ago. In one week half of their starters had a bye week, as well as a few backups with the same bye. You should make sure that you balance your team so you have a top player off each week. It is much easier to win with one backup starting than it is with four starting.

Position Value
In the NFL you need a strong defense, a smart QB, and a solid running attack. In most fantasy leagues, you need at least two RB and one WR before you even think about a QB. You can get a top 10 fantasy QB in rounds 5-7, but you are lucky if you can find a starting RB left by round six.

Coaching Changes
The coaching carousel was in full swing this off-season, as several teams changed coaches (Jets, Chiefs, Lions, Rams, Saints, Raiders, Texans, etc). Different game plans can mean different roles for players. The Chiefs may have a more conservative offense this year, and the Saints will be much more explosive. Other moves to watch regard coordinators and position coaches. Michael Vick has a new Quarterback coach, Mike Martz is now running the Lions offense, and the Texans offensive should be improved with Gary Kubiak's innovative offensive line ideas.

Reserves
Your bench is the key to your team. It is easy to lose a league just by having a poor bench. You need to draft depth at RB, WR, and QB. You don't want to fill your bench with sleepers in case they don't pan out. Pick the most consistent players, keeping in mind bye weeks. You want to keep at least one or two spots on your bench fluid in case you need to rotate players each week due to injuries. Always scour the waiver wire for talent, even if a new player is a nominal upgrade. Remember to look at the schedule to see if a bench player might be able to put up better stats than a starter.

Schedule
Teams that had a dramatic improvement in their record last year will face a much tougher schedule this year. Team like the Eagles that struggled last year will be playing more of the “lesser” teams. Also check to make sure you know who your players are playing. If you have two players that put up similar fantasy points, then play the person that is facing the weaker team. It might not always make a difference, but it might. You are much more likely to get a big game from a RB against the worst rushing defense in the league then you would against the best run stoppers.

Substance or Flash
Some players might be flashy but do they show up every week? For several years my top running back was Corey Dillon. He didn't play for a winning team but he was consistent and had close to 100 yards and one TD every week. Why take a player that puts up big numbers one week and then is shutout the next? This is also key when selecting your reserves.

One Hit Wonders
Beware of any veteran player that went from a benchwarmer to a fantasy star last year. They may have finally emerged as a player, or that one great year could have just been a flash in the pan. Did he get extra playing time because of another player's injuries or have a fallout with coaches? This is important info for any player that made an unexpected fantasy splash.

Kickers
You would think that the best option would be to take the kicker from the highest scoring team. Wrong move, a common mistake. The top fantasy kicker last year played in Arizona. If a team averages five touchdowns and two field goal attempts a game you have a chance to score 11 total points (if he hits all of his kicks). An average offensive team is more likely to score to touchdowns but give you five field goal chances, for a chance at 17 points. While six points may not sound like very many, it is about half of the total of a top kicker. You also need to know if your kicker can kick in bad weather.

Defense
Good teams usually have good defenses. Teams that play an easy schedule are attractive because they play teams with poor offenses, but might get destroyed when they play a good team. Your best bet is to find a decent team that is solid on special team (most leagues count special teams points for defenses) and has a lineup without many changes. Team with a rebuilt defense may have talent, but how well will they mesh. The Patriots won three Super Bowls with mostly the same defense because everyone knew the system.

If your league has individual defensive players then it is important to know what will get you points. Getting a guy that gets 12 sacks a year is great, but if he only gets 3 tackles a game and only plays on first and second down then he won't help you as much as you think. (Example, using sack as 3 pts, solo tackle as 1 pts, assisted tackle as .5 pts). Simeon Rice (3rd in the NFL in sacks) had 14 sacks last year, but 33 solo tackles a 7 asst, for a total of 78.5 points. Danny Clark (tied for 20th in tackles) had 82 solo tackles, 31 asst, and 1 sack for a total of 101.5 points. I had never even heard of Clark until I went to find this example. This proves that a big name doesn't always equal big points.

Injuries
Some leagues don't remove top players from their pre-rankings, even if they are injured. One year I ended up with Jamal Lewis in the first round even though he had blown out his knee and was gone for the year. Any player can get hurt, but certain players always seem to miss a few games a year (Fred Taylor, I'm looking at you). Stay away from an injury risk as if he had the plague. Even if the person has a good year, do you really want to take the chance?

Hurt Your Opponent, Help Yourself
Take a look at the team you are playing next week. Look and see which players are having bye weeks, and try to imagine yourself as having that roster. Are you going to need to pickup a RB and TE off waivers? If so, grab the best players available before your next opponent even thinks about it. Crippling your opponent is not only fun but can be very helpful.

Take this information I have provided and go dominate your league. You can send me any cut of prize money you win (not that anyone ever plays fantasy football for money), although I think 10% is a fair amount. Also, remember this extremely important piece of information, don't draft drunk. Friends let friends draft drunk so you will end up with Joey Harrington in the first round. Trust no one.

Comments:
Nice rundown. I especially got a kick out of drinking your friends under the table. Pretty good draft strategy.

MyFantasyBall Football
 
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